Hollywood, FL. – Following a week in which Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned as chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) after whistle blower Wikileaks released over 19,000 emails detailing Wasserman Schultz’s divisive role at the DNC, a new poll shows a drastic decline in Wasserman Schultz’s support in Florida’s 23rd Congressional District.  The Wikileak disclosures raised doubts about Wasserman Schultz among 59% of likely Democratic primary voters.  Meanwhile, 65% expressed doubts about her ties to the payday lending industry that has preyed on vulnerable and low-income communities in the district, particularly among Hispanics and African Americans.  Finally, a whopping 70% expressed doubts about Wasserman Schultz over her ties to the big sugar companies that are largely responsible for the blue-green algae environmental disaster threatening South Florida beaches, coastal waters, the Everglades, and drinking water.A synopsis of the poll, shown below, conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates, reveals that this decrease in popularity has resulted in a true horse race between Canova and Wasserman Schultz.

A synopsis of the poll, shown below, conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates, reveals that this decrease in popularity has resulted in a true horse race between Canova and Wasserman Schultz.
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TO:         Interested Parties
FROM:    Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates
RE:          Florida 23rd Congressional Democratic Primary Survey Results
DATE:     July 29, 2016  

A survey[1] conducted this week of likely Democratic primary voters in Florida’s 23rd Congressional District shows challenger Tim Canova within striking distance of incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
 
As Figure 1 shows, in the wake of Wasserman Schultz’s recent resignation as Democratic National Committee Chair, 52% rate her favorably and 35% regard her unfavorably -- a staggering decline from her popularity in past campaigns.  In comparison, Tim Canova has a four to one favorability rating as 32% hold a positive opinion of him and fewer than one in ten regard him unfavorably.  Furthermore, with six in ten primary voters unable to offer an opinion, Canova has the opportunity to introduce himself to a large segment of the electorate that has soured on Wasserman Schultz.

 
The revelations of the past week have put Wasserman Schultz’s tenure in Congress in jeopardy.  This long-time incumbent is now below the fifty percent threshold in a two-person race, and she leads her primary opponent by just 8-points, 46% to 38%. (See Figure 2) Moreover, with 16% of the Democratic primary electorate undecided, Canova is poised to expand his base of support among voters moving away from the embattled incumbent.  In fact, following an exchanges of positive and negative information about the candidates, Wasserman Schultz’s lead narrows to three points, which is within the survey’s margin of error.
 

 

The impact of the last week cannot be understated—more than eight in ten (84%) primary voters are aware of Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s resignation as DNC Chair and the leaked emails.  Among these voters, nearly half (46%) say they are less likely to vote for her for Congress, and a majority (51%) of all Democratic primary voters say she “cares more about national politics than our problems here in South Florida.” 
 
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The timing of the poll may be problematic for the Wasserman Schultz campaign.  According to the Broward Supervisor of Elections office, thousands of independents and Republicans in Broward County have re-registered as Democrats in the days leading up to the Monday, August 1st registration deadline, and a similar trend has been seen in Miami-Dade County.  Canova has encouraged such re-registrations for purposes of voting against Wasserman Schultz in the August primary and growing the Democratic Party for the presidential election in November.