For the first time since she first became a member of Congress, Debbie Wasserman Schultz is being primaried by a progressive challenger. Canova is a law professor as well as a banking and finance expert. He served as an aide to the late U.S. Senator Paul Tsongas in the 1980s, and as an adviser to U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders in 2011. He has also endorsed Bernie Sanders’ 2016 Presidential campaign for the Democratic nomination.

Since announcing the formation of his campaign, Canova has received much media speculation from both local and national news sources. None of this analysis, however, has attempted to answer the question – how likely is a Tim Canova win in Florida’s 23rd district?

Canova has funded his campaign through small donations which he receives, predominantly online, from average Americans as he described in his latest goal update, “We are proud that our campaign is powered by average people like teachers, nurses, small business owners, union members, students, and seniors.”

Canova’s fundraising model has been extremely efficient and successful too, while exploiting his opponents inability to appeal to progressive Democrats, Canova has raised over $1 million with an average donation of just $18.  Dr Sean Foreman – a political science Professor at Barry University in Miami Shores, Florida – says that the fact that Tim Canova is raising a significant amount of money from a large number of donors is key to him being successful, “People are willing to invest in his campaign, even against an entrenched incumbent.”

Foreman also believes that Wasserman-Schultz displays a multitude of weaknesses as a candidate, “There is major discontent around the country with Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and her performance as DNC chair,” he continued, “Many blame her for stacking the deck in favor of Hillary Clinton and against Bernie Sanders in the presidential debates. In some ways, Canova’s challenge to DWS is a proxy war for the larger battle in the progressive movement and for the soul of the Democratic Party”

While Canova’s policies are aligned with Democratic primary voters on most of the important issues especially on trade deals, mass incarceration, and corporate money in politics. But the question that so far has alluded the political punditry is whether or not Canova can actually win by gathering enough votes in Florida’s 23rd district.

The progressive dissatisfaction with the actions of Rep. Wasserman-Schutlz both as a Congressional representative and as the Democratic National Committee chair is universal – it just isn’t as profound in her particular district where she has successfully solidified a large base of voters who are committed to the woman herself, not her actions and not her policies. This makes Canova’s job a considerably harder one than what it would be if he was running against Wasserman-Schultz in a more progressive district.

The 23rd district’s inclination to go with a candidate based on their strong name recognition and their efficient political machine also manifested itself during the Presidential primary. Voting heavily in favor of Hillary Clinton, the district contradicted Canova’s previous endorsement of Bernie Sanders.

His opponent has apparent strengths and even more apparent weaknesses, and so a major determining factor of Canova’s success will be the candidate himself. The Democratic voters in the 23rd district aren’t necessarily inclined to agree with Wasserman-Schultz on matters of policy, but they know her very well and a lot of them like her.

Canova will need to successfully highlight the stark policy differences between himself and Wasserman-Schultz in order to sufficiently appeal to the principles of the Democratic voters. If Canova doesn’t present himself as inspiring and fundamentally different to Wasserman-Schultz, voters won’t feel compelled enough to lurch away from their comfortable association with the DNC chair.

Howie Klein – an expert in the area of progressive politics and founder of the Blue America PACwhich supports Congressional and Senatorial candidates who commit to left wing goals – says he is confident about Canova’s chances, “Leaving aside that Debbie Wasserman Schultz has made a national spectacle of herself as a corrupt establishment figure, Canova is an exceptional candidate in his own right.”

Klein believes that the fact that Canova is an articulate and competent figure, provides him with a better chance of winning than other, less qualified progressives, “Canova is far better than a “protest” candidate, his professional career has been devoted to working on issues that are crucial to American families and he has the skills needed, as an attorney and a professor immersed in policy, to go to Congress and benefit the people who live in the district. ”

While Klein – a staunch progressive – says that Canova is the ‘Sanders Democrat’ with the best chance of making it to Congress, even the aforementioned objective analyst Sean Foreman believes that when you incorporate the national media attention the race is garnering, as well as Canova’s outsider, anti-establishment appeal, he undoubtedly has a chance to win,” This will be a very competitive race. It now is starting to look possible that Canova could win, but it is certainly going to be an uphill battle all the way.”

Canova’s campaign is only going to grow stronger as the financial resources he has accumulated increasingly allow him to amplify his message to the residents of his district. The Canova campaign, backed by progressives from all around America, has also been looking to schedule a debate between himself and his opponent, however Wasserman-Schultz’s campaign has yet to commit. If the debate does happen, it would likely even better Canova’s position, allowing Florida Democrats to see he better represents them in the eyes of most left-wing commentators.

While it will be a struggle to bring down a core component of the Democratic establishment, nobody is better positioned to do so than Tim Canova. Although, due to a severe lack of polling, we probably won’t know until election day – the expert consensus is becoming progressively more inclined to think that Canova has the edge on Wasserman Schultz.